Â The temperature of the US economy lowered last Friday as the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2012 were released. The headline figure showed a drop to 2.2% vs. 2.5% expected and 3.0% prior. At the same time, the quarterly PCE Core came out at 2.1% as expected, but still showing an increase of 0.8% since Q4 2011. The market reaction should on this news be negative, but following to the rhetoric from the Fed that they would introduce another round of QE if needed, the markets seems to be positioning itself for that. The sluggish employment figures on Thursday supports this case, but housing seems to be strong. took home gains for the second week in a row, closing up 0.3%. Â The stock markets were generally in positive last week â€" even the Spanish IBEX took home its first weekly gain in 6, closing up 1.5%, despite massive turmoil and a two-notch downgrade from the S&P on Friday, aiding a risk-on scenario inflated by monetary stimuli. Â Going into this week, Australian stocks have been driving markets higher on the rate outlook from the RBA, which are expected to cut rates tomorrow 25bp to 4.0%, but some analysts are expecting a 50bp cut. As inflation in Australia generally has come off, lowering rates will help the economy getting back on track and could benefit the consumer as well in the access to credit. had a very strong week last week, gaining 0.9%, currently struggling with 38.2% Fibonacci-resistance at 1.0463 in the wave from February highs to April lows. A break of this would give scope for a test of 1.0520/40-zone. Downside protected by 1.0370-80-area. Â Today, the markets will be focusing on March M3-figures from the Euro-Zone before lunch and in the US session, the March US Personal Income and Spending figures will be the main point of focus for the markets. Also the monthly PCE Core figures will reveal any indirect increase in inflation. From a QE-perspective, the figures must not be too supportive for growth.
From Canada, we have monthly and yearly GDP figures. The Loonie has appreciated decently against the US dollar since October 2011 and is currently testing the 0.98-figure. Support seen at 0.9730 and no signs of real resistance before 1.0050/70. Â Have a nice day! Â