Last week allowed some hesitation on the current dollar bullish trend, even some renowned institutions started to call for a temporary top and the start of a reversal on the dollar as the latest was pulling back following the FOMC minutes publication two weeks ago. The DXY however posted a low of 96.17 on Thursday before resuming the uptrend, this low corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the last leg up that started on the 26th of February and extended to the 13th of March. This means one thing, the current uptrend is still in place and healthy thanks to this natural pullback.

Last week allowed some hesitation on the current dollar bullish trend, even some renowned institutions started to call for a temporary top and the start of a reversal on the dollar as the latest was pulling back following the FOMC minutes publication two weeks ago. The DXY however posted a low of 96.17 on Thursday before resuming the uptrend, this low corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the last leg up that started on the 26th of February and extended to the 13th of March. This means one thing, the current uptrend is still in place and healthy thanks to this natural pullback.

By the end of last week Janet Yellen helped clarifying the big picture, not by saying that the fed path to tightening could “speed up, slow down, pause or even reverse course” but by letting know that the fed would probably start hiking interest rates progressively this year.

The highlight this week for the US will come from the NFP figures, analysts’ consensus is expecting 250K job addition for the month of February which is relatively bullish for the dollar especially in case of strong upbeat like we had last month with a 295K surprise job addition.

The single currency is currently taking advantage of a small correction phase thanks to easing of tensions around the negotiations between Greece and the Troika and the short lived dollar weakness phase. EUR/USD managed to post a peak at 1.1050 during its correction but found strong resistance with sellers jumping back in position as many market participants are still targeting the parity between the euro and the Greenback for 2015.

To the exception of the preliminary inflation figures for March this week, where the month on month figure is expected to be slightly better than the precedent one with a reading of 1% compared to a previous one of 0.6%. There is another market driver to watch closely that will be weighing on the euro coming from Greece. In fact, Greece is expecting to reach an important deadline on the 9th of April, the country will not only have to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month but also repay the IMF of approximately 460€ million on that day. This piece of news is enough to renew market tensions on the EUR/USD and make it highly sensitive to any piece of news coming from Greece.