Last week the US data were less encouraging. On Wednesday, ADP and ISM manufacturing figures miss were a first warning for the NFP miss that we’ve seen on Friday. In fact, with a weak 129’000 job addition in the US economy in March against an expected 235’000 and a previous reading of 288’000 we’ve seen the worst figure since December 2013. In the span of three days the Dollar Index (DXY) abandoned approximately 2.30% from high of 98.64 on Wednesday before the release of the data to a low reached on Friday at 96.39. It looks like the US economic recovery path is paved with hurdles.

USD

Last week the US data were less encouraging. On Wednesday, ADP and ISM manufacturing figures miss were a first warning for the NFP miss that we’ve seen on Friday. In fact, with a weak 129’000 job addition in the US economy in March against an expected 235’000 and a previous reading of 288’000 we’ve seen the worst figure since December 2013. In the span of three days the Dollar Index (DXY) abandoned approximately 2.30% from high of 98.64 on Wednesday before the release of the data to a low reached on Friday at 96.39. It looks like the US economic recovery path is paved with hurdles.

The economic calendar for this start of the week is rather encouraging for the Greenback, Composite and Services PMIs figures helped to support the dollar slightly with a small upbeat both posting a 59.2 figure against a respective 58.5 and 58.6 and the ISM non-manufacturing that came in line with expectations of 56.5 is helping too.

At the moment, the Dollar Index (DXY) is still struggling to remains above 96.40 key support which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the last leg up that started at the end of February and extended to the 13th of March. Any break lower would send a bearish signal on the USD for the week.

EUR

EUR/USD is not giving up, the euro benefitted mostly from poor US data, rumours of a massive 450€ million debt repayment to the IMF upcoming this week on the 9th of April that would put Greece in difficulties weighed on the euro but were not sufficient to keep it below 1.10 plus Varoufakis pledged on Saturday that he would honour this debt payment killing bearish speculations on the single currency.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD could rise to 1.12 – 1.13 in case the 1.10 breakout is sustained and bulls are strong. The economic calendar will be relatively light for the Eurozone therefore we should expect the euro to be relatively more sensitive to the technical picture rather than fundamental drivers or else trade relatively to other major G-10 currencies move. By that I intend that RBA and BoJ monetary policy decisions are expected this week with high speculations on a possible Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut which would again support the euro in a certain way.