Price action in EUR/USD has in the past weeks been choppy with bearish pressure dominating. Post the elections in France, the pair fell briefly to lows not seen since January, although offers seemed to be absent below 1.30, hence no follow-through. For this week, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3050 in the wave from June 2010 lows to May 2011 highs will be decisive for further direction. Short term, a break below 1.2930 will be needed to confirm further downside, giving scope for a test of 1.2875. Upside, the 100 day moving average at 1.3120 provides resistance, before 1.3180/90-area.